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National Aeronautics and Space Council, Executive Office of the President UNCLASSIFIED

Thoughts on the Space Alien Race Question

Date July 18, 1963
Location Washington, D.C.
Type memorandum
Pages 6

Memorandum to the State Department exploring the policy implications of discovering alien intelligence in space, evaluating the plausibility of intelligent life on Mars, and considering recent lunar observations as potential evidence.

extraterrestrial intelligencespace policyNational Aeronautics and Space Council1963Mars
Analysis

In July 1963, a Space Council staffer wrote the State Department a memo arguing that the U.S. government needed an alien contact policy. Maxwell W. Hunter II laid out three graduated scenarios: a chemically-propelled Martian civilization, a nuclear-capable interstellar race, and a faster-than-light civilization that had already solved physics we hadn't. He calculated that a species expanding at half light speed could colonize the entire galaxy in 200,000 years. His conclusion was bleak: nobody would take the subject seriously until contact actually happened, and "policy will be determined in the traditional manner of grand panic." His one recommendation if it ever did: immediately bury "all Terrestrial hatchets."

Key Findings
  • Author presents three graduated alien contact scenarios with different policy implications: primitive chemical propulsion, nuclear energy equivalence, and physics beyond Einstein
  • Calculates that a race expanding at half light speed could colonize the entire galaxy in 200,000 years
  • Notes that "credible" evidence (lunar hot spots, failed probes, Martian canali) would be interpreted as signs of intelligence if scientists were less certain of themselves
  • Concludes cynically that no one will take the subject seriously unless contact occurs, and "policy will be determined in the traditional manner of grand panic"
  • Recommends immediate "burying of all Terrestrial hatchets" upon any discovery of alien intelligence
Page Extractions 6 pages

Page 1

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statushas_content
doc_typememo
classificationOfficial Use Only (declassified)
page_descriptionNational Aeronautics and Space Council memorandum regarding policy considerations for discovering alien intelligence in space, discussing scientific consensus versus flying saucer advocates.
dates1963-07-18 | date of memorandum (July 18, 1963)
people
  • Mr. Robert F. Packard | Office of International Scientific Affairs | Department of State | recipient
  • Author (name not visible on this page) | Executive Office of the President | National Aeronautics and Space Council | memorandum author
organizations
  • Executive Office of the President | U.S. government
  • National Aeronautics and Space Council | U.S. government
  • Department of State | U.S. government
  • Office of International Scientific Affairs | U.S. State Department
assessments
  • Possibility of alien intelligent race in solar system is negligible | scientific consensus
  • Flying saucer advocates claim overwhelming evidence exists | flying saucer position
  • Almost total impossibility of alien life problematic | scientific consensus criticism
  • Question warrants policy consideration | author's view
referencesBNSP Task I | referenced policy discussion
quotes
  • "During recent discussions the question has occasionally, though rarely, arisen that perhaps we should consider the policy question of what to do if an alien intelligence is discovered in space." | memo introduction
  • "Some discussion of this occurred, as you will recall, during deliberations on BNSP Task I." | memo reference
  • "The consensus of scientific view says, with quite good reasons, that the possibility of running across an alien intelligent race in our solar system is negligible." | scientific assessment
  • "This is due primarily to the presumed unsuitability of conditions upon other planets to support life as we know it." | rationale
  • "The flying saucer advocates claim, of course, that the scientific viewpoint is nonsense, and that there is overwhelming evidence of such beings." | flying saucer position
  • "In my own mind, I find it difficult to side with the flying saucer advocates, but the almost total impossibility envisioned by most scientists also is disturbing." | author's assessment
  • "Therefore, I present the problem in current perspective, as I see it." | author's purpose
  • "Up until a few decades ago it seemed very improbable that intelligent life existed anywhere outside of the solar system." | historical perspective
  • "The chief reasons for this were a combination of scientific theory, scientific knowledge, and religious belief." | historical context
  • "The most widely accepted scientific theory as to the formation of the solar planetary system held that it was a result of the near collision of two stars." | historical scientific theory

Page 2

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statushas_content
doc_typememo
classificationOfficial Use Only
page_descriptionMemorandum continuation discussing evolution of scientific theories on planetary systems, stellar formation, biological origin of life, and interpretations of Martian features including the "Canali."
observationsSpectacular markings on Mars interpreted as indicating intelligence. Famous "Canali" (Schiaparelli's name for Martian surface features) are narrow, run from one prominent marking to another, frequently with round splotches at intersections. No discovered "Canali" goes nowhere. This has stimulated much scientific conversation. Historical scientists seemed to feel intelligent life on Mars was most probable when they thought life on other stellar systems was very remote.
assessments
  • Current scientific theory predicts planetary systems as natural consequence of stellar evolution | modern consensus
  • Most stars would possess planetary systems | current theory
  • Number of habitable planets in galaxy would be tremendous | inference from stellar formation theory
  • Wide prevalence of multiple stars is overwhelming hint supporting stellar formation theory | author assessment
  • Biological sciences have traced natural occurrences from inanimate molecules to elementary living viruses | scientific achievement
  • Life is quite likely to arise spontaneously on large number of planets | current scientific inference
  • This does not necessarily imply intelligent life | caveat
  • Modern theology not necessarily incompatible with current scientific theory | theological compatibility
  • Genesis Creation account better picture of current theory than stellar collision | theological interpretation
  • Intelligent race possible on other planets like Mars | open question
  • Martian "Canali" patterns suggestive of intelligence | interpretive observation
quotes
  • "The situation today is vastly changed in these respects." | philosophical transition
  • "The most widely held theory of stellar formation would predict the formation of planetary systems to be a natural consequence of stellar evolution." | current theory
  • "On this basis, most stars would possess planetary systems, and the number of habitable planets in our galaxy would be tremendous." | inference from theory
  • "In my own mind, however, the wide prevalence of multiple stars is an overwhelming hint in support of this theory." | author assessment
  • "In addition, the biological sciences have almost completely traced a series of natural occurrences which lead from inanimate molecules to elementary living viruses." | biological science progress
  • "Thus, we have the current scientific theory and data not only that there are a huge number of planets in the galaxy, but that life is quite likely to arise spontaneously on a large number of these." | combined inference
  • "Modern theology is not necessarily incompatible with this." | theological consideration
  • "The description in Genesis of the Creation certainly is a better picture of the current theory than of a stellar collision, and since God only spent seven days on this system, He has clearly had lots of time to create many more systems." | theological reconciliation
  • "In particular, the famous 'Canali' are rather narrow, and always run from one prominent marking to another, frequently with round splotches at intersections." | observation of Martian features
  • "As far as I know, no one has discovered a 'Canali' which goes nowhere." | observation assessment
  • "This has quite understandably stimulated much conversation." | response to Martian observations

Page 3

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statushas_content
doc_typememo
classificationOfficial Use Only
page_descriptionMemorandum continuation discussing flying saucer advocates' theories about Martian mining operations on the moon, lunar space flight feasibility, recent lunar discoveries, and hypothetical evidence of moon intelligence.
observations
  • Hot gases emanating from crater Alphonsus discovered when moon was supposedly dead. This would be considered evidence of civilization and since Alphonsus is close to visible edge, would be interpreted to mean other side of moon was teeming with population which had begun operations.
  • Discovery of both Martian moons within a week in latter part of Nineteenth Century claimed by some flying saucer advocates as indication they are large artificial space stations.
assessments
  • Discussions about life on Mars at turn of century indicate strong urge to find intelligent life elsewhere | historical observation
  • Today situation completely reversed: intelligent life considered probable among stars but quite unlikely within solar system | current consensus
  • Martians mining moon would be plausible from orbital mechanics perspective | theoretical analysis
  • Escape speed of Mars is 16,500 fps and braking speed on moon less than 10,000 fps | orbital mechanics data
  • From Martian perspective, Earth would be viewed like Terrestrials view Jupiter | comparative assessment
  • Chemical rocket from Mars to moon at favorable times could carry 10% payload | propulsion analysis
  • Space flight from Mars easier prospect than from Terra | comparative assessment
  • Refueling base on moon would enable operations with chemical energy | theoretical scenario
  • Discovery of Martians on moon would result in surprisingly little scientific readjustment | speculative assessment
  • Biggest question would be why Martians on moon rather than asteroids | logical consideration
  • Three recent lunar events would be hailed as hints of intelligent life if not scientifically sure of ourselves | epistemological reflection
references
  • Ozma | astronomical project for detecting intelligent life
  • Alphonsus crater | lunar location
  • Asteroids | alternative extraterrestrial location
quotes
  • "Some of the discussions about life on Mars at the turn of the century seem to indicate a strong urge to want to find intelligent life elsewhere." | historical observation
  • "Today, the situation is completely reversed, and although intelligent life is considered quite probable among the stars, it is held to be quite unlikely within the solar system." | current consensus reversal
  • "We seem more eager to listen with Ozma than to look closely at Canali." | contemporary astronomical priorities
  • "One school of flying saucer advocates claims that the Martians have been mining our moon for natural resources for some time." | flying saucer hypothesis
  • "At first thought, one would think they would rather mine earth." | logical objection
  • "The escape speed of Mars is only 16,500 fps, and, of course, braking speed on our moon is less than 10,000 fps." | orbital mechanics data
  • "Thus, Martians looking at earth would tend to view it the same way Terrestrials look at Jupiter." | comparative assessment
  • "Space flight starting from Mars, then, is a much easier prospect than starting from Terra." | propulsion assessment
  • "If a suitable refueling base had been painfully established on our moon, the operation could be done quite commendably with merely chemical energy." | theoretical scenario
  • "Of course, many flying saucer advocates claim that the discovery of both Martian moons within a week in the latter part of the Nineteenth Century indicates that they are large artificial space stations, otherwise they would have been found earlier." | flying saucer argument
  • "If we were to discover Martians on the moon, it would result in surprisingly little readjustment of our scientific thinking." | epistemological reflection
  • "The biggest question would be why they were there rather than among the Asteroids." | logical implication
  • "In fact, if we were not as scientifically sure of ourselves as we are, three recent events would be hailed as broad hints of intelligent life on the moon." | epistemological caveat
  • "The discovery of hot gasses eminating from the crater Alphonsus when the moon was supposedly dead. This would be considered evidence of civilization and, since Alphonsus is close to the visible edge, interpreted to mean that the other side of the moon was teaming with population which had begun" | lunar observation interpretation

Page 4

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statushas_content
doc_typememo
classificationOfficial Use Only
page_descriptionMemorandum continuation discussing hypothetical Martian colonization, interstellar travel feasibility, Einstein limitations, and theoretical galactic expansion scenarios by extraterrestrial civilizations.
observationsInfra-red scans showing hot spots on moon would be interpreted as indications of cities or mining camps. No lunar or planetary probe of significance has been successful despite major efforts by two very successful earth orbiting nations, which would suggest someone denying us deep space. Other-side-of-the-moon pictures from Lunik III show no details of consequence, and same can be said of data from Mariner II compared to what was already known about Venus from earth-based measurements.
assessments
  • Should Martians colonize moon without discovering nuclear energy, they represent no real problem | strategic assessment
  • Current national policy would be appropriate for such situation | policy evaluation
  • If true, Martians would be scared of recent human developments | psychological inference
  • Highest priority Martian development would be Atomic Energy Commission program | strategic inference
  • Intelligent life unlikely on Mars or other solar planets | scientific belief
  • Visitors from other stellar systems possible but extremely low probability | probabilistic assessment
  • Tremendous distances between stars and Einstein speed-of-light limitation restrict travel | physical constraints
  • Even with large number of intelligent life forms in galaxy, frequency of stellar system investigation would be once in many thousand years | statistical inference
  • Contact would rarely or ever be achieved | probabilistic assessment
  • Intelligent races presumably die out | speculation
  • Planetary destruction (Asteroid Belt) and Uranus tilt unexplained phenomena | observational puzzles
  • Travel restriction not quite as infallible as sounds | critique of accepted constraints
  • Possible to envision ships at half to three-quarters speed of light with known nuclear energy | theoretical feasibility
  • Even at three-quarters light speed, entire galaxy search not feasible within human lifespan | practical limitation
  • Race under population pressure could expand star to star throughout galaxy | theoretical scenario
  • Ships averaging half light speed, stopping every 10 light-years for 20-year stays could spread across galaxy in two hundred thousand years starting from center | expansion calculation
references
  • Lunik III | Soviet lunar mission
  • Mariner II | U.S. Venus probe
  • Venus | planet
  • Asteroid Belt | solar system feature
  • Uranus | planet
quotes
  • "The infra-red scans which show hot spots. These would be interpreted as indications of cities or at least mining camps." | hypothetical interpretation
  • "The fact that no lunar or planetary probe of significance has been successful, in spite of major efforts on the part of two very successful earth orbiting nations. It would be supposed that someone was denying us deep space." | probe failure interpretation
  • "The other-side-of-the-moon pictures from Lunik III show no details of consequence, and the same can be said of the data from Mariner II compared to what we had already known about Venus from earth-based measurements." | probe assessment
  • "Should the Martians have colonized the moon without discovering nuclear energy, then they represent no real problem, and our current national policy would be made to order for the situation." | strategic assessment
  • "If all of this were true, of course, I would expect the Martians to be scared to death of what they have seen recently on this planet, and would expect that the highest priority development program in the solar system is being conducted by the Atomic Energy Commission of Mars." | strategic inference
  • "This is normally written off as an extremely low probability, due to the tremendous distances between stars, and the Einstein limitation on travel faster than the speed of light." | accepted constraint
  • "Therefore, even if there are a large number of intelligent life forms in the galaxy, and even if they are continuously searching for other races, the frequency of investigation of any stellar system would be only once in many thousand of years and contact would rarely, if ever, be achieved." | probabilistic inference
  • "I am not sure that this travel restriction is quite as infallible as it sounds." | challenge to accepted constraints
  • "I believe that it is possible with what we now know about nuclear energy to envision ships driven at half to three-quarters of the speed of light." | theoretical possibility
  • "But suppose some race under pressure of population explosion were expanding as fast as technically feasible from star to star throughout the galaxy. If their ships averaged half the speed of light, and if, on the average, they stopped every 10 light-years for a twenty-year stay at a stellar system to deposit colonists, refuel, and build extra ships, they would only take two hundred thousand years, starting at the center of the galaxy, to spread" | expansion scenario

Page 5

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statushas_content
doc_typememo
classificationOfficial Use Only
page_descriptionConcluding page of memorandum presenting three hypothetical alien contact scenarios and policy recommendations for discovering extraterrestrial intelligence.
dates1,700,000 years ago | approximate date of earliest known human remains
observationsEarliest known remains of man recently dated at approximately one million seven-hundred thousand years, suggesting two hundred thousand-year sustained expansion drive not unreasonable.
assessments
  • Representatives of interstellar race would not be as tame as previously hypothesized chemical Martians | comparative assessment
  • Policy would need to be revised accordingly for advanced extraterrestrial contact | policy implication
  • Travel time restrictions would inhibit advanced race ability to bring all forces to bear in conflict | strategic assessment
  • Einstein theory may only be approximation | theoretical critique
  • Alien race traveling faster than light is scientifically abhorrent but possible | speculative assessment
  • If encountering faster-than-light race, must negotiate quickly | urgent policy implication
  • Implications of superior understanding and control of fundamental forces of nature would be obvious | assessment of advanced technology
  • Should determine alien type as quickly as possible if contact occurs | policy priority
  • Probability of finding other intelligence race is finite and should not be completely ignored | risk assessment
  • Discovery would affect policies in drastically possible way | policy implication
  • Policy of immediate burying of all terrestrial hatchets would likely be in order | recommended diplomatic approach
  • Even finding chemical Martians or survey mission debris would suggest human race found bigger problem than those created for itself | philosophical reflection

assessments (three hypothetical contact scenarios):

1. Primitive chemical space flight from Mars | lowest threat level

2. Space flight equivalent to best understanding of nuclear energy | intermediate threat level

3. Space flight based on physics beyond Einstein | highest threat level requiring rapid negotiation

references
  • Einstein theory | relativistic physics constraint
  • Intragalactic survey mission | hypothetical extraterrestrial activity
quotes
  • "Since the earliest known remains of man have recently been dated at approximately one million seven-hundred thousand years, a sustained drive for merely two hundred thousand years may not be unreasonable." | historical perspective
  • "Of course, if we were to run across representatives of this kind of interstellar race, they would not be nearly as tame as the previously hypothesized chemical Martians, and our policy would need to be revised accordingly." | threat assessment
  • "Fortunately, travel time restrictions would inhibit their ability to bring all forces to bear, in case we should develop differences of viewpoint." | strategic advantage
  • "The third possibility, scientifically abhorrent, is that the Einstein theory may only be an approximation, and an alien race which actually travels faster than light exists." | speculative possibility
  • "If we were to meet such a race, our policy had better be to negotiate fast, because the implications of their far better understanding and control of the fundamental forces of nature would be obvious." | urgent policy recommendation
  • "If all the scientific speculation were to turn out wrong and we were to stumble across an alien race, we would want to know as quickly as possible which of the three types I have indicated it was, as our diplomatic policy would damned well be influenced by the results." | policy priority
  • "Although all plausible scientific thinking suggests that we will not find any other intelligence race, the probability that we will is finite, and perhaps should not be completely ignored." | risk assessment
  • "Were we to find one, the question of whether it was a race with primitive chemical space flight, space flight equivalent to our best understanding of nuclear energy, or space flight based on physics beyond Einstein should be ascertained as rapidly as possible, since our policies would be affected in the most drastically possible way." | policy implication
  • "In any event, a policy of the immediate burying of all Terrestrial hatchets would likely be in order." | recommended policy
  • "Even if we only found tame chemical Martians, or merely the debris from some intragalactic survey mission, it would be a good idea to proceed on the assumption that the human race would finally have found a bigger problem than the ones it has created for itself." | philosophical reflection
  • "There likely is nothing to be done at" | conclusion introduction

Page 6

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statushas_content
doc_typememo
classificationOfficial Use Only
page_descriptionFinal page of memorandum containing concluding remarks and author signature.
peopleMaxwell W. Hunter, II | Member, Professional Staff | author/signatory
assessments
  • No action to prepare for alien contact possibilities at the moment | stated position
  • Only body of writing on alien contact available in emergency is science fiction | critique
  • No one of consequence will take subject seriously unless it happens | political observation
  • Policy will be determined in traditional manner of grand panic | cynical assessment
quotes
  • "There likely is nothing to be done at the moment to prepare for these possibilities (the only body of writing on the subject available in an emergency is science fiction), because no one of consequence is going to take this rubbish seriously unless it happens." | concluding assessment
  • "At that point, our policy will be determined in the traditional manner of grand panic." | final conclusion
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